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During the 2016 campaign for the US presidency, Viktor Orbán stood out as the sole European Union leader to endorse Donald Trump. This alignment was expected, given Mr Orbán's adoption of divisive ideas like the "great replacement" theory and his restrictions against press independence. Analysts observe that Mr Orbán essentially pioneered the Maga movement, with one-time strategist Steve Bannon lauding Orbán as the "Trump before Trump".

Campaign Assistance Ahead of Hungarian Elections

Last week, ahead of key votes in Hungary just approaching in six months, the US president offered electoral assistance. With Orbán seeks a fifth term in office presiding over a nation he describes as an illiberal democracy, his ruling party currently trails in surveys. An official trip to Washington resulted in more than some autographed Trump merchandise; it secured considerably more valuable pre-election gifts.

Special Treatment and Economic Protections

Although earlier admonishing EU countries on the need to halt all fuel purchases from Russia, and threatening restrictions against countries continuing to purchase Russian crude, Mr Trump agreed to provide a special exemption for the Hungarian government – the top consumer among EU members of Russian oil. According to Mr Orbán, the US government also promised to extend a fiscal buffer to Budapest should it encounters any upcoming challenges, given that the European Union is still blocking billions in EU funding to Hungary due to rule-of-law breaches.

The details of this deal seem unclear. Yet Donald Trump has shown his inclination to assist ideological allies when the America extended a $20 billion in emergency funds to Argentina’s far-right president, Javier Milei. While Mr Orbán was unable to arrange a Trump trip to Budapest to Budapest, the Washington talks nonetheless was a productive session.

EU Concerns and Geopolitical Stakes

Among European leaders, Mr Trump’s intervention likely further underlined the international consequences of the upcoming vote, before which the moderate contender, the rival candidate, enjoys a solid advantage in the polls. Heads of state are accustomed not to look for reliable policies from the Trump administration, and have grown used to the Trump's efforts to belittle the bloc. But the special treatment for Orbán – secured through an deal to acquire American energy resources – openly contradicts the bloc's aims to phase out imports of Russian energy by 2027.

• Starting in 2022, the top importers in the EU of Russian petroleum, these two countries, have funneled well over £10bn to the Moscow's war operations.
• At the same time, the Hungarian government has consistently deployed the blocking vote to stymie progress in Ukraine's bid to join the EU.
• While Europe works to develop a cohesive plan for backing Ukraine, and strengthening its hand in any future peace negotiations, the Hungarian leader's alignment with Moscow at the international forums remains a significant obstacle.

Challenger's Position

Mr Magyar has refrained from promising a drastic turnaround on the war in Ukraine, and centered his campaign on domestic issues, while emphasizing the need for Hungary to finally behave as a constructive EU member. Following persistent provocations, Brussels can only hold out hope. Orbán's disregard to basic EU values, such as the protection of minority groups and the freedom of non-governmental organizations, has persisted as a source of shame for the bloc. His persistent opposition regarding Ukraine could harm its long-term safety.